Weekly Economic Update
October 13, 2025

 

THE STREAK IS SNAPPED

It was bound to happen sooner or later — the market’s winning streak was snapped last week. The downward move came amid fears of a reescalation of global trade tensions and rising concerns around the impacts of a prolonged government shutdown.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 spent much of the week in positive territory, buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for companies making several new deal announcements.^1,2 One such headline included a strategic partnership between Advanced Micro Devices and OpenAI that sent shares of the former up more than 20% on Monday.^3,4 But it didn’t last. Equities turned sharply lower on Friday after President Donald Trump posted on social media that he is considering a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese products.⁵ His post was in response to China’s proposed new export controls on rare earths. The heightened level of geopolitical and economic uncertainty was underscored by gold values, which surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever.⁶

FED MINUTES SHOW POLICYMAKERS CONCERNS

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting received intense scrutiny last week, since there’s not a lot of other data to dissect.⁷ The minutes showed some divergent opinions among policymakers as they weighed conflicting economic signals. Ultimately, most policymakers came down on the side of lowering rates, although some believed caution is still warranted for future rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan reported its preliminary October Index of Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 55, little changed from the prior month.⁸ According to the report, consumers’ views of current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions improved. (Guess they didn’t talk to any government workers who aren’t getting a paycheck right now.)

When will the government reopen? The Senate is scheduled to vote again on Tuesday, the 14th day of the shutdown. Some betting odds are putting the likelihood of Congress reaching an agreement by the 15th at 93%, although it’s hard to predict anything after the Senate’s seven previous attempts to reach an agreement failed.⁹

COMING THIS WEEK

• Traders seem to be looking ahead to the third-quarter earnings season, which kicks off this week. With the U.S. government shutdown causing a lack of major economic data releases, earnings could have an outsized impact on markets and sentiment.
• Fed speakers are making the rounds once again this week. With less data coming out due to the government shutdown, their comments will get more attention than they might otherwise.
• Thursday will be a big day from a data standpoint. We’ll get a good look at the latest inflation numbers via both the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) numbers. Other data on Thursday includes initial jobless claims and U.S. retail sales.
• Finally, on Friday, we’ll get a glimpse into how the housing market is doing with housing starts and building permits. Other data will include the import price index and industrial production.

Sources:
1. Yahoo! Finance. “NASDAQ Composite (ˆIXIC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
2. Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
3. AMD. Oct. 6, 2025. “AMD and OpenAI Announce Strategic Partnership to Deploy 6 Gigawatts of AMD GPUs.” https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1260/amd-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-6-gigawatts-of-amd-gpus. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
4. Yahoo! Finance. “Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
5. Dan Mangan. CNBC. Oct. 10, 2025. “Trump threatens ‘massive’ tariff hike on China over rare earths dispute.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-china-tariffs-rare-earths.html. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
6. Yahoo! Finance. “Gold Dec 25 (GC=F).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F/. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
7. Federal Reserve. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250917.pdf. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
8. University of Michigan. Oct. 3, 2025. “Surveys of Consumers – Preliminary Results for October 2025.” https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.
9. Maria Francis. Delaware Online. Oct. 10, 2025. “How long is government shutdown 2025 going to last? Polymarket odds, next Senate vote update.” https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2025/10/10/how-long-will-the-shutdown-last-when-is-next-senate-vote-to-reopen-government-whats-polymarket-odds/86620565007/. Accessed Oct. 12, 2025.

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